pretty self-explanatory. what we have here are my oscar predictions with results going back to 2006

OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2013

will win are in bold

Best Picture
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Amour
Django Unchained
Argo

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Best Actress
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master

Best Original Song
"Before My Time," Chasing Ice
"Pi’s Lullaby," Life of Pi
"Suddenly," Les Miserables
"Everybody Needs A Best Friend," Ted
"Skyfall," Skyfall

Best Animated Feature Film
Frankenweenie
Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
Paranorman
Brave

Best Foreign Language Film
Austria: Amour
Chile: No
Canada: War Witch
Denmark: A Royal Affair
Norway: Kontiki

Best Director
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Original Screenplay
John Gatins, Flight
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Michael Haneke, Amour
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom

Best Adapted Screenplay
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Chris Terrio, Argo
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
David Magee, Life of Pi

Best Cinematography
Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina
Robert Richardson, Django Unchained
Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln
Roger Deakins, Skyfall

Best Costume Design
Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina
Paco Delgado, Les Misérables
Joanna Johnston, Lincoln
Eiko Ishioka, Mirror Mirror
Colleen Atwood, Snow White and the Huntsman

Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers,
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Documentary Short
"Inocente," Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
"Kings Point," Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
"Mondays at Racine," Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
"Open Heart," Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
"Redemption," Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill

Film Editing
William Goldenberg, Argo
Tim Squyres, Life of Pi
Michael Kahn, Lincoln
Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers, Silver Linings Playbook
Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg, Zero Dark Thirty

Makeup and Hairstyling
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel, Hichcock
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell, Les Miserables

Best Original Score
Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
John Williams, Lincoln
Thomas Newman, Skyfall

Best Production Design
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Anna Karenina
Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent and Simon Bright, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson, Les Miserables
David Gropman and Anna Pinnock, Life of Pi
Rick Carter and Jim Erickson, Lincoln

Best Animated Short
"Adam and Dog," Minkyu Lee
"Fresh Guacamole," PES
"Head over Heels," Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly
"Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare,'" David Silverman
"Paperman," John Kahrs

Best Live Action Short
Asad, Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
Buzkashi Boys, Sam French and Ariel Nasr
Curfew, Shawn Christensen
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw), Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
Henry, Yan England

Best Sound Editing
Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn, Argo
Wylie Stateman, Django Unchained
Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton, Life of Pi
Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers, Skyfall
Paul N.J. Ottosson, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia, Argo
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes, Les Misérables
Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin, Life of Pi
Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins, Lincoln
Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson, Skyfall

Best Visual Effects
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott,Life of Pi
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick, Marvel’s The Avengers
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill, Prometheus
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson, Snow White and the Huntsman

OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2012

WILL WIN are in bold

DID WIN (WON)

MY SCORE: 19/24

BEST PICTURE
"The Artist," Thomas Langmann, producer (WON)
"The Descendants," Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, producers
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," Scott Rudin, producer
"The Help," Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, producers
"Hugo," Graham King and Martin Scorsese, producers
"Midnight in Paris," Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, producers
"Moneyball," Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, producers
"The Tree of Life," Nominees to be determined
"War Horse," Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, producers

LEAD ACTOR
Demián Bichir, "A Better Life"
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"(WON)
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy "
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

LEAD ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"(WON)
Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"

BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"(WON)
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"(WON)
Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"(WON)

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
"The Descendants," Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash(WON)
"Hugo," John Logan
"The Ides of March," George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
"Moneyball," Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," Screenplay by Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
"The Artist," Michel Hazanavicius
"Bridesmaids," Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
"Margin Call," J.C. Chandor
"Midnight in Paris," Woody Allen(WON)
"A Separation," Asghar Farhadi

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
"A Cat in Paris," Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
"Chico & Rita," Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
"Kung Fu Panda 2," Jennifer Yuh Nelson
"Puss in Boots," Chris Miller
"Rango," Gore Verbinski(WON)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Bullhead," Belgium
"Footnote," Israel
"In Darkness," Poland
"Monsieur Lazhar," Canada
"A Separation," Iran(WON)

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
"Hell and Back Again," Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
"If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front," Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
"Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory," Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky
"Pina," Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
"Undefeated," TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas(WON)

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
"The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement," Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
"God Is the Bigger Elvis," Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
"Incident in New Baghdad," James Spione
"Saving Face," Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy(WON)
"The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom," Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
"Dimanche/Sunday," Patrick Doyon
"The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore," William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg(WON)
"La Luna," Enrico Casarosa
"A Morning Stroll," Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
"Wild Life," Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
"Pentecost," Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane
"Raju," Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
"The Shore," Terry George and Oorlagh George(WON) 
"Time Freak," Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
"Tuba Atlantic," Hallvar Witzø

ART DIRECTION
"The Artist," production design: Laurence Bennett; set decoration: Robert Gould
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2," production design: Stuart Craig; set decoration: Stephenie McMillan
"Hugo," production design: Dante Ferretti; set decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo(WON)
"Midnight in Paris," production design: Anne Seibel; set decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
"War Horse," production design: Rick Carter; set decoration: Lee Sandales

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Guillaume Schiffman, "The Artist"
Jeff Cronenweth, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Robert Richardson, "Hugo"(WON)
Emmanuel Lubezki, "The Tree of Life"
Janusz Kaminski, "War Horse"

COSTUME DESIGN
Lisy Christl, "Anonymous"
Mark Bridges, "The Artist"(WON)
Sandy Powell, "Hugo"
Michael O'Connor, "Jane Eyre"
Arianne Phillips, "W.E"

FILM EDITING
"The Artist," Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
"The Descendants," Kevin Tent
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall(WON)
"Hugo" Thelma Schoonmaker
"Moneyball," Christopher Tellefsen

MAKEUP
"Albert Nobbs," Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2," Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin
"The Iron Lady," Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland(WON)

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
"The Adventures of Tintin," John Williams 
"The Artist," Ludovic Bource(WON)
"Hugo," Howard Shore
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," Alberto Iglesias
"War Horse" John Williams

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
"Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets," music and lyrics by Bret McKenzie(WON)
"Real in Rio," from "Rio," music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown; lyrics by Siedah Garrett

SOUND EDITING
"Drive," Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," Ren Klyce
"Hugo," Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty(WON)
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon," Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
"War Horse," Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom

SOUND MIXING
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
"Hugo," Tom Fleischman and John Midgley(WON)
"Moneyball," Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon," Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
"War Horse," Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson

VISUAL EFFECTS
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
"Hugo," Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning(WON)
"Real Steel," Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
"Rise of the Planet of the Apes," Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett

"Transformers: Dark of the Moon," Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier

OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2011

WILL WIN are in bold

DID WIN (WON)

MY SCORE: 18/24

despite anne hathaway's efforts and enthusiasm, the 2011 academy awards will go down as one of the worst i have ever seen. not because of who won or lost, but i'm talking the show itself.

besides the funny put-the-hosts-in-the-movies opening, there was barely a laugh or moment of excitement to be found (except when i won the pool i was in of course). the remixed songs was fun and the bob hope part was nice (although, seeing billy crystal out there to introduce it just made it more obvious what a great host he was and how anne and james just couldn't match up). but other than that the show was pretty dull.

as for my predictions: i did ok this year. 18/24 isn't bad and i did get 2/3 in the shorts categories which is where many pools are often won or lost. however, there were a few categories that, looking back, i'm not sure what i was thinking. i think i got a little too into the idea that The King's Speech wave would sweep up other categories that i missed, the now-obvious, Alice In Wonderland in art direction and costume design. and those of you who listened to the prediction episode of the podcast know how close i was to going with the winners in editing, documentary feature and foreign film (but, alas i didn't). so 18/24 it is. one better than last year and my second best showing since i started doing the podcast. how did you all do?

BEST PICTURE
The King's Speech(WON)
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The Fighter

 BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech(WON)
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams , The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter(WON)
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Christian Bale , The Fighter(WON)
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo , The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

BEST ACTRESS
Natalie Portman , Black Swan(WON)
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Nicole Kidman , Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams , Blue Valentine

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem , Biutiful
Jeff Bridges , True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth , The King's Speech(WON)
James Franco , 127 Hours

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year , Mike Leigh
The Fighter , Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, and Keith Dorrington
Inception , Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right , Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
The King's Speech , David Seidler(WON)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours , Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network , Aaron Sorkin(WON)
Toy Story 3 , Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich
True Grit , Joel and Ethan Coen
Winter's Bone , Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World(WON)
Incendies
Outside the Law

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3(WON)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland(WON)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception(WON)
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland(WON)
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job(WON)
Restrepo
Waste Land

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More(WON)
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Andrew Weisblum, Black Swan
Pamela Martin, The Fighter
Tariq Anwar, The King's Speech
Jon Harris, 127 Hours
Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network(WON)

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Adrien Morot, Barney's Version
Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng, The Way Back
Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, The Wolfman(WON)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
John Powell, How to Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network(WON)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Coming Home” from Country Strong, Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from Tangled, Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from 127 Hours, Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3, Music and Lyric by Randy Newman(WON)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing(WON)
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love(WON)
Na Wewe
Wish 143

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Inception(WON)
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Inception(WON)
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception(WON)

Iron Man 2